Sunday, November 13, 2005

Superpower Showdown

Superpower Showdown

By the beginning of the 20th century, America had made its peace with Britain and France, but the U.S. soon found itself in wars hot and cold, against Germany, then Japan, then Russia. Now, in the 21st century, the looming great powers are China and India. So if history is our guide—and it should be—we can expect forthcoming collisions with those countries as well. Of course, most Americans today are preoccupied with the Muslim Middle East, but our fight with Islam does not alter the challenges posed by the “twin pillars” of Asia—nations that might well possess economic outputs equivalent or even superior to the U.S. by mid-century. Yet at the same time, those two pillars will no doubt contend with each other. First, we must recognize that rising powers inherently bring rising threats. Second, such rising powers should be balanced, played off each other, and not directly confronted. Why? Because the cost of American participation in nuclear-era world war, for any reason less than national survival, is simply too great. America would be wise to accept a reduced role in Asia in exchange for a reduced responsibility for participating in the inevitable future regional conflicts.

Barring a general war—which hardly seems like a good idea for the U.S., as well as for China or even for Taiwan—Beijing will eventually recover Taipei, for the simple reason that it’s clearly within its sphere of influence. So China will reunify with Taiwan, just as the American North reunified with the South after the Civil War. The federal government in Washington, D.C. would not have not looked kindly on any foreign power that sought to assure the secession of Richmond. So what should the U.S. do? First, we should have an honest debate. Resolved, Americans will not risk mass annihilation in return for Taiwan’s independence. Resolved, no more unlimited-liability checks written to the Taiwanese. Using honest realpolitik, the U.S. should tell Taipei that its optimal course is a peaceful Hong Kong/Macau-like return to the motherland.

If the Indians and the Chinese continue to graduate 10 times as many technologists as the U.S., and if the Japanese continue to create the first post-human robot society, then Americans should keep from kidding themselves that our currently booming domestic real-estate market, for example, will assure our long-term geopolitical primacy. Instead, if we are serious about surviving, we need the 21st-century equivalent of Alexander Hamilton’s 18th-century “Report on Manufactures”; that is, we should simply decide what industries we need in order to defend ourselves, and then launch a conscious techno-industrial policy to make sure that those vital industries remain onshore.


At November 13, 2005 5:43 PM, Blogger erp said...

“we should simply decide what industries we need in order to defend ourselves, and then launch a conscious techno-industrial policy to make sure that those vital industries remain onshore.”

Fjordman even though you are a very smart person and have studied our ways, you don't quite get it. We roll with the punches and the market place will decide how things go. We’re not worried about foreign scientists because when foreign scientists come here to study, guess what? They become American scientists.

Haven't you noticed that planning ahead is foolish when new products and discoveries are happening almost minute by minute. You’re unnecessarily concerned about China and India and possibly Japan or Russia will emerge to challenge us militarily or economically. Please stop worrying about us. Free trade and a peaceful world will make all of us richer than we ever dreamed . War for gain is no longer on the horizon.

What we need to do is make the world safe so the peaceful free nations can get on with solving the problems of famine and disease, but in order to do that, we must stop the policies of appeasement and start enforcing the law.

Muslim countries, not wishing to emerge from the 7th century can be left to themselves with the proviso that their atavistic savagery cannot be exported to the rest of the peaceful and sane world and the full knowledge that any attempt to do so will be met with immediate and horrible retaliation.

We’ve put up with them for too long. The invitation should be issued to all the rogue states, come join us in the 21st century or face the consequences.


Post a Comment

<< Home