Sunday, September 25, 2005

Iran prepares war plans, to strike bases in case of US mobilization

One of the difficulties the US is facing in an eventual military confrontation with Iran is that its forces in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere are vulnerable to counterattacks from the Iranians:

Iran prepares war plans, to strike bases incase of US mobilization

Iran has identified seven US bases in the region to attack in case there is the smallest sign of American mobilisation to its borders, and the military assets have been broadly identified to be in Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, and Djibouti. Official sources said Iran has also threatened US warships and specific military assets in the Persian Gulf in case it moved for a naval blockade, and these decisions were taken by the Iranian national security council after president Mohammad Ahmadinejad’s combative speech in the UN General Assembly, where he said that in the face of U.S. provocation, “we will reconsider our entire approach to the nuclear issue”. Intelligence filtering out from the highest levels of the Iranian leadership suggests that it considers the present US threat more credible than any rhetoric in the past, and Iran is trying to forge a national consensus to face any military challenge from America. The Iranian leadership is absolutely confident of prevailing over any US attack alone, and it assesses that the American military is “very tired” and cannot run a big military campaign against Iran for long, although independent analysts said the country was making a virtue of a necessity, because none of its neighbours was likely to support it against the United States. The European Union backed by the US is pressing for a vote of the IAEA board for referring Iran to the UN Security Council for sanctions for violating the NPT, and according to newspaper reports, when Ahmadinejad called prime minister Manmohan Singh, he asked him to be “flexible” to avoid a confrontation over the nuclear issue.


At September 26, 2005 4:27 AM, Blogger felix said...

Perhaps I am missing something here, but since the US is not (I think) going to invade Iran with ground troops, then we would be talking an air and sea power war. In that kind of war the US wins--in the sense of destroying Iranian air, sea and ground (tank) assets.

I guess the US would avoid bombing religious sites, oil production facilities, and population centers.

At September 26, 2005 4:46 AM, Blogger Mike H. said...

The secret to superiority on the ground is air superiority. In Vietnam the NVA couldn't launch a Piper Cub without all services knowing about the takeoff. The senior agency reported to all agencies the minute the launch happened. The capability has been enhanced not diminished since then. Iran might want to leave the blustering till after it has proved that it can win. Otherwise the Paper Tiger isn't the US. BTW, Iran has a slight problem with vulnerability.

At September 26, 2005 4:46 AM, Blogger heather said...

I personally want the US to sit this one out. Let the EU take care of Iran, if it comes to that. It is also likely Israel would target areas in Iran that they perceive to be a threat, as they did in the 1981 attack on the Osiraq nuclear center.

At September 26, 2005 6:40 AM, Blogger bordergal said...

Let the EU take care of Iran?
That would be nice.

However, I think it will require something more then a strongly worded letter....

Does the EU have the intestinal fortitude to deal effectively with this problem?

At September 26, 2005 6:45 AM, Blogger Dan Kauffman said...

"and it assesses that the American military is “very tired” and cannot run a big military campaign against Iran for long"

I do believe Bin Laden laid the same claim?

"our boys were shocked by the low morale of the American soldier and they realized that the American soldier was just a paper tiger. He was unable to endure the strikes that were dealt to his army, "

At September 26, 2005 9:09 AM, Blogger Runnymede1215 said...

Hello Fjordman, I haven't been visiting your blog for a while, so this new design was a surprise to me.

I'm sorry, but i really preferred the old one, have you considered changing it back?


At September 26, 2005 10:00 AM, Blogger Fjordman said...

Nordic_smile: I don't think the EU countries are capable of taking care of anything, even if they wanted to. Which they don't.

Runny: Yes, I will change to another template again soon. I'm not quite happy with the color of the letters, as some find them harder to read.

At September 26, 2005 5:17 PM, Blogger CJB said...

This is the regime blustering for internal consumption. Iranian threats to US bases refer to their Shahab missiles. These are not highly accurate, but if they get lucky can cause considerable damage. However, they are liquid fueled weapons which are vulnerable to attack during the fueling stage, prior to launch. The US has no plans for a ground invasion of Iran but does have plans for operations by air & sea forces, while supporting Iranian opposition groups. If & when the US attack comes, lead by US stealth bombers, the Iranians won't even see it coming. By the time the first round of bombs fall, it will be too late for any response. The Iranian's know this and are blustering.


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