Tuesday, June 28, 2005

Socialist MPs Leaving Sinking Swedish Ship?

Are Swedish Socialists leaving the sinking ship they helped create? The decline in popularity for the left-wing in Sweden is in sharp contrast to Norway:

Over half of government's MPs could quit

Fewer than half the MPs in Sweden's ruling red-green coalition plan to stand for re-election, according to a new survey by Swedish Radio. Asked whether they would consider standing at the next election, fewer than half of MPs in the Social Democratic, Green and Left parties answered in the affirmative. Of 144 Social Democrat deputies, only 67 said that they definitely intended stand in the 2006 election. Eighteen said that they did not intend to stand, with 31 MPs currently uncertain. Twenty-eight did not respond to SR's question. This contrasts with the attitude of MPs in the right-wing alliance, which is currently riding high in opinion polls. Forty-two Moderate Party deputies said they planned to stand next year, with only six planning to stand down.

Support for government at new low

Swedish voter support for the Social Democratic government of Prime Minister Göran Persson is at a low, an opinion poll published on Saturday showed, some 15 months ahead of the country's general election.

Moderates ahead of Social Democrats in poll

Sweden's Social Democrats, which have governed Sweden for the better part of the past 70 years, are no longer the country's biggest party, overtaken by the Moderate Party, a poll showed on Thursday. This is the first time in almost eight years that a major polling institute has put the Moderates, the leading opposition party, ahead of Prime Minister Göran Persson's Social Democrats. The Temo poll, which surveyed 2,571 people June 7-21, shows that 31.7 percent of those questioned would vote for the Moderates if an election were held today, compared to 30.8 percent for the Social Democrats. Sweden's next legislative elections are scheduled for September next year. A number of polls have in recent months shown that support is greater for the centre-right coalition, comprising the Moderates, Center, Liberal and Christian Democrat parties, than for the left-wing bloc.


At June 28, 2005 9:59 PM, Blogger Kledo said...

Does anybody know about opinion polls in Sweden? One of them is mentioned in this article but I would like to get a classical source (for example like Aftenposten in Norway).

At June 28, 2005 10:35 PM, Blogger Jude the Obscure said...

Rats aren't lemmings unfortunately. They go somewhere. Wonder where they will turn up once they are out of their comfortable and well paid jobs in the Government and bureaucracy?

At June 28, 2005 11:23 PM, Blogger Fjordman said...

Kledo: I think The Local is pretty reliable. I'm not aware of a special newspaper in English from Sweden apart from that, such as the Copenhagen Post in Denmark. The Local translates articles from various Swedish media, not their own articles the way Aftenposten does.

At June 29, 2005 1:25 AM, Blogger Crusader Rabbit said...

kledo: I know of two polling angencies in Sweden that perform political opinion polls. "Temo" is the one with which I am more familiar. Here is the URL to their latest political poll: http://www.temo.se/Templates/Page____198.aspx

The text says that it is a telephone poll of citizens 18 and older. [I question whether they actually verified citizenship]

It's all in Swedish, [sorry] but even if you can't read the language, the table at the bottom should be pretty easy to work out.

This comes with the caveat that I am intensely suspiscious of all political opinion polling due to [among other things] the sampling techniques which are considered "normal" in the polling business.

I blogged a bit about my mistrust of polling last November. Here's the URL to the first of 3 parts.: http://pleasedonteattheclusterbombs.blogspot.com/2004/11/as-pinkerton-was-to-mcclellan.html

At June 29, 2005 2:09 AM, Blogger Runnymede1215 said...

Well, the Moderates are going up, but that's mainly because they have become almost as socialist as the Social Democrats. No more talk about lowering taxes, no more critical words about the welfare state.

The swedes haven't changed I'm afraid.

At June 29, 2005 2:23 AM, Blogger Fjordman said...

Runny: I've heard Swedes say that you have eight different Social Democratic parties in parliament, and no real opposition. Norway is almost as bad, but at least we have the Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet). It is too soft in my view compared to the Danish People's Party or even the Liberals in Denmark, but still saner than any of the major parties in Sweden. Sweden is in a lot of trouble, and the elections next year may be your last chance to get out of this mess in civilized ways.

At June 29, 2005 7:57 AM, Blogger Kledo said...

Fjordman & Crusader Rabbit, thanks.

Unfortunately I don't see sverigedemokraterna or nationaldemokraterna in this table. I concur with Fjordman in both of his points (that there are only socialdemocratic parties in Swedish Parliament and your next elections is the last oportunity to change things in civilized manner). You really need quite a few right-wingers as MPs.

At June 29, 2005 7:13 PM, Blogger Crusader Rabbit said...

kledo: Understand that Temo's customer is DN. If Temo's sampling model were to acknowledge the existence of any sentiment for sverigedemokraterna or nationaldemokraterna I suspect DN would be unwilling to pay for the service.

The customer is always right. This is the gist of my argument that polls aren't trustworthy.

Nevertheless, I don't believe that the electorate in Sweden is ready for real solutions yet. The alleged popularity of Moderaterna if real would suggest that they are ready for some half-measures at best. Moderaterna have come a long way since Gösta Boman. Most of that motion has been to the left.

On the other hand, if you want to see the Swedish press criticise the policies of the Socialists, just wait until Moderaterna are the ones administering those policies.

Watch for doomsday discussions of Barnbidrag rates while the gang rapes proceed apace and unmentioned.


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