Sunday, August 28, 2005

The demographics of radical Islam

I have heard Samuel P. Huntington make the argument that very high birth rates is what is fueling the current unrest in the Islamic world. I think that's nonsense, Islam is fueling it. But demographics are helping, yes:

Spengler: The demographics of radical Islam

Demographics still provide vital strategic information, albeit in quite a different fashion. Today’s Islamists think like the French general staff in 1914. Islam has one generation in which to establish a global theocracy before hitting a demographic barrier. Islam has enough young men - the pool of unemployed Arabs is expected to reach 25 million by 2010 - to fight a war during the next 30 years. Because of mass migration to Western Europe, the worst of the war might be fought on European soil. Although the Muslim birth rate today is the world’s second highest (after sub-Saharan Africa), it is falling faster than the birth rate of any other culture. By 2050, according to the latest UN projections, the population growth rate of the Muslim world will converge on that of the United States (although it will be much higher than Europe's or China's). Excluding Indonesia, the Muslim’s world literacy rate stands at only 53%, against 81% for China; Arab literacy is only 50%. Only 1% of the population owns a personal computer. It is delusional to believe that the Arab world, which now exports (net of oil) as much as Finland, might come to compete with China, India and the rest of Asia in the global market for goods and services. Just as the Muslim population peaks, the one bounty that nature has bestowed upon the Arabs, namely oil, will begin to diminish. In short, the Muslim world half a century from now can expect the short end of the stick from the modern world. But at the moment it has 25 million idle young men. A great many of them are likely to emigrate to Europe, including Eastern Europe, where populations are stagnant and about to decline. A Muslim takeover of Western Europe surely is a possible outcome.


At August 28, 2005 2:04 PM, Blogger Bjoern said...

"Islam has enough young men - the pool of unemployed Arabs is expected to reach 25 million by 2010 - to fight a war during the next 30 years."

Who or what is this "Islam" he speaks of, that "has" all these young men? Does "Islam" have a commander, a general? Does it have a territory, and borders, and training camps, and a military? Does it have ambassadors?

Surely you don't expect the world's Muslims to just spontaneously gather under the same banner and start fighting for Islam as one united group, something they've been unable to do since the birth of their religion. Especially not without the permission of their dictators, who often have other concerns.

Or are we on a purely metaphorical level where "war" means something other than "war"? Are we on the same metaphorical level when Spengler talks about Muslims "wanting" to fight this war, ie. they don't actually want or intend to take over Europe?

And - not to rub it in, but the omissions is kind of important - where is the evidence that "today’s Islamists think like the French general staff in 1914". This Spengler guy quotes Islamists to back less important claims, but he leaves out evidence for his main point? It's a very specific claim, one he surely wouldn't make unless he has very specific proof.

- Bjørn Stærk

At August 28, 2005 5:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Of course it won't be a formal declared war. Muslims don't fight (well) like that. It'll be a guerilla civil war like Lebanon and the Balkans and Chechnya. Not a declared formal war, but plenty of secret aid will stream in from the Ummah to help their brethren fight against native Europeans.

At August 28, 2005 5:52 PM, Blogger Bjoern said...

"Not a declared formal war, but plenty of secret aid will stream in from the Ummah to help their brethren fight against native Europeans."

Uh-huh. I gather that you have access to the same plans Spengler has read. The ones where the world's islamists explain that they intend to start a war (or guerilla war) against Europe. The ones that explain how they're going to gather enough Muslims under their banner to accomplish this. The ones that explain how they'll overcome their logistical and other challenges.

I would be very grateful if you would point me in the direction of these plans. I'm already familiar with the intentions of certain islamists of conquering the world etc. etc., but that has always seemed more of a long-term and delusional goal than a practical objective, and I'm interested to see this document you've read of how they intend to do it.

- Bjørn Stærk

At August 28, 2005 6:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No need to see a "plan" -- It's already begun. Epidemic rapes of non-Muslim women, bombings, escalating crime, murders and death threats against dissidents and people who speak out, etc. It'll only get worse. Of course you can sit there in your cocoon and snicker at people who see what's going on "I would be very grateful if you would point me in the directin of these plans" while your continent continues to Balkanize.

The pattern is clear, wherever Islam goes, and has been for centuries.

At August 28, 2005 7:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually, I err. There is a plan. It's called the Koran and the Sunnah. You can view it easily by googling for Koran online and the complete set of sahih hadith online at the USC MSA database. I'm too lazy to provide you with the links -- as no doubt, you would be too lazy to read them.

At August 28, 2005 9:04 PM, Blogger Bjoern said...

"No need to see a "plan" -- It's already begun."

Okay, so now we've gone from a "war" that will occur in a couple of decades, to an informal "guerilla war" that will be financed by the Muslim world, to a crime wave that has already started. The Islamic threat seems to be shrinking by the hour.

"Epidemic rapes of non-Muslim women"

You may want to consult other sources than Fjordman when it comes to daily life in Eurabia. Immigrants are over-represented in crime statistics. But the picture he paints of Europe as a continent under siege by sex-crazed Arabs has as much to do with the Europe I know as I guess the picture Michael Moore paints of the US has to do with the real US. I mean, surely one of the qualities of a society under siege by sex-crazed Arabs is that it knows it's under siege. If there is some kind of secret knowledge required to unlock the conspiracy, I think that pretty much disqualifies terms like "Balkanization", which refers to a conflict that was very apparent to everyone involved. Fjordman's analysis is extremely marginal, and this can only be explained by some official conspiracy to keep the truth hidden if you believe Norway is a socialist dictatorship. Which, contrary to what some would have it, we aren't.

But okay, let's say the Muslims have launched a religiously inspired rape campaign against infidel Europe, (laughable though this idea is). This will lead to the Islamification of Europe .. how?

"I'm too lazy to provide you with the links -- as no doubt, you would be too lazy to read them."

Actually I would be very interested to read both the scriptures and traditions you're referring to, and the theological interpretations of them that supposedly inspires this war against Europe. Furthermore, examples of the modern application of these interpretations in the sense you're thinking of, ie. as justification of an invasion and forced conversion of Europe, and some data indicating that this is the actual intent of enough European Muslims to carry it out.

- Bjørn Stærk

At August 28, 2005 9:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's all in there, go and read for yourself. I'm not going to spoon feed you. Go and spend 700 hours or so reading the Sunnah, the books of Islamic law, the tafsir etc., as I have. Read both pro-Islam and anti-Islam websites, as I have.

And yes, sexual harassment of infidel women is part of the jihad and so is crime and ethnic cleansing. It's part of the wearing-down process, as they do in Israel, in Thailand, in Nigeria, etc., as well as bombings and targeted assassinations.

Mohammad was a criminal and pirate who financed his enterprises by attacking caravans. He led more than 80 caravan pirate raids. This was part of the wearing-down process as well as a way to get money to finance his wars of conquest.

Muslims consider him to be the world's perfect man and their perfect role model. He and his followers also considered women to be "booty". (This was actually an old Arab custom that got hard-coded into Islam via the Sunnah, the way of following every habit and action of the world's most perfect man as an act of worship.)

You won't be sniggering and sneering at me and Fjordman 20 years from now, I would warrant. The trouble is that sanctimonious fools like you never listen, and by then it will be too late.

At August 29, 2005 1:17 AM, Blogger John Sobieski said...


You say you need proof. I would recommend you read Eurabia by Bat Ye'or to understand the background of what is happening in Europe. Be more open to other ideas about Islam than your own. You don't have to buy it. If your library does not have it, ask to get it through your interlibrary loan.

Pedestrian Infidel
The Pedestrian Infidel Blog

At August 29, 2005 2:53 AM, Blogger Don Miguel said...


Besides the above mentioned Bat Ye'or, read the works of Ibn Warraq and Robert Spencer. You might also try reading the writings of bin Laden and his spiritual mentors, and for good measure, try a sampling of the plethora of writings from current and past Wahhabi leaders. Of course, it goes without saying that you should read the Koran and Haddiths before anything else. When you have read all of that, look at the current economic, cultural and educational state of all countries that are Islamic or that have areas under Islamic control. Then ask yourself if there something more than what one sees on the surface (as if that is not enough).

BTW, you have a great blog.

At August 29, 2005 3:04 AM, Blogger PD111 said...

On 9/11 over 3000 people died in a matter of hours. This tally is of the same order as at Pearl Harbour. At Pearl Harbour though, the Japanese were in uniform, rallied under a banner and answered to a general staff, so of course that makes it a war, in the conventional sense.

On 9/11 though, there were no flags, no generals, no borders, or any of the accepted symbols of war making, and yet the effect on the US was more catastrophic then at Pearl Harbour. In addition, this devastation was caused by a handful of disparate muslims with no real military training.

So before we go any further, one needs to ask Bjoern if he thinks that 9/11 was an act of war.


At August 29, 2005 3:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I used to read Bjorn's blog. But I lost interest in it when he started apologizing for Islam big time.

He spends a lot of time making fun of those of us who don't exactly think it's the greatest thing since sliced infidel, and he also spends a lot of time demanding that we show "proof" of our opinions about Islam. But he himself never bothers to read any primary sources about Islam, never bothers to invest any time at all in studying it -- just demands again and again that we justify our opinions about it. If you tell him that he should read the primary sources, he ignores you and then repeats his demands again and again for "proof."

I have no time for such people as that. They can invest the time in reading the primary sources or not -- it's up to them. But if they don't bother to invest the time to study the primary sources, their opinions abut Islam, IMHO, are not worth anything at all.

At August 29, 2005 6:29 AM, Blogger Don Miguel said...


I treat him the way I do people like Bill O'Reilly. When they discuss a subject they obviously know little about, I just ignore them on that subject. For example, O'Reilly knows science no better than the average 3rd grader, so when he speaks on a scientific subject I just skip over to the next one. No use throwing out the baby with the bath water! Of course, when someone shows their ignorance in a lot of areas (e.g. Michael Moore, Jimmy Carter, Pat Robertson), I just add them to the "don't bother" list and hope that I don't accidentally get exposed to them!

At August 29, 2005 1:12 PM, Blogger PD111 said...


I was expecting a reply from Bjoern by now. Will continue to check periodically.

At August 29, 2005 1:18 PM, Blogger PD111 said...

Interesting article here on Sweden - rapes and freedom of expression.


Plus other items of interest on the same site


ISLAMIC UPGRADE freebies from your taxes

At August 30, 2005 6:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


He doesn't know anything about Islam. At least he admitted as much upthread. Which makes me respect him a bit more than I did before.

At August 30, 2005 2:21 PM, Blogger PD111 said...

Irene posted re Bjoern: He doesn't know anything about Islam. At least he admitted as much upthread.Which makes me respect him a bit more than I did before.

That is very generous and gracious of you, considering Bjoern adopted a rather snearing tone in some of his comments.


At August 30, 2005 5:14 PM, Blogger Jason Pappas said...

Bjoern seems to prefer ridicule instead of engagement. But, Bjoern, here are some links if you want to read about Islam’s nature as a supremacist ideology that some might even consider a version of racism, given how the word is sometimes used today. By the way, I have no doubt that moderate Muslims exist. The question is does moderate Islam exist?

At August 30, 2005 8:23 PM, Blogger PD111 said...

Jason Pappas:Bjoern seems to prefer ridicule instead of engagement.

Jason, you and Irene are being very gracious. There is though, a difference between ridicule and a sneering tone. Ridicule can be funny, a sneering tone is quite different.

Oh well, that is his style and so be it.


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